Bumi, he was shown not even touching earth and was able to bend it.
Though if someone wants to argue that it was because his metal box was touching earth, one could almost say he could have bent metal before Toph in a sense. Or I just like causing discussion, either really ^-^
I think they're pretty even. We've seen both lift up huge chunks of earth/rock and bend it to their will. Even if Bumi doesn't know how to metalbend, he can still keep earthbending while not touching any earth.
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8th Hero of Olympus wrote: In one of the canonical comics... I forget what it's called...
Oh then this discussion has no point. Case closed.
The Comic was called Bumi vs. Toph, Round One However Bumi and Toph drew because Katara, Zuko and the members of the Order of the White Lotus (it took place during Sozin's Comet) broke up the fight. There was no metal anywhere on the arena that they were fighting on, it was all Earth.
Bumi and Toph's match in the comics was declared a draw because it was interrupted, but that's a neat trick comic book writers have been pulling since forever to keep from irking fans by having their favorite character lose.
That said, the match shows us that Bumi and Toph are roughly equal in skill. Both are very skilled on defense and anticipating enemy attacks, which means that both of them would have trouble landing a match-ending move. Thus, the fight would last a very long time and most likely be decided by stamina, in which I believe Bumi has the advantage, seeeing as how he fought his way through an entire city single-handed while throwing and lifting massive objects, repeatedly. Toph's metal-bending gives her a slight advantage, since metal is usually stronger than rock, but that doesn't mean a metal attack would be able to cut clean through Bumi's defenses. Bumi most likely wins, albeit after a very long struggle.
That said, Grandma Toph (from Legend of Korra) would stomp Bumi flat. She was nearly on his level when she was only 12, while he was over one-hundred. Given time to develop her skills and experience, I have no doubts that Toph would be far out of Bumi's league.
Toph has actually held very large loads for very long times on at least 3 separate occasions: Holding up the library, holding back the drill, & holding up the collapsed mine in The Rift. So she has plenty of stamina.
I agree with you, if the outcome is unclear when Toph is 12, she'd certainly surpass Bumi when she was older, if she hadn't already.